[To all my US colleagues – a happy and safe Memorial Day holiday]

Two of my colleagues at the Brookings Institution and NYU – Thomas Wright and Bruce Jones – had occasion in the Argument section of Foreignpolicy.com – with the convening of the Camp David G8 Summit – to reflect on the state of the advanced economies.  Not surprisingly they were struck by this summit convening – especially in the light of the ascendancy of the G20 and the emergence of the BRICS.  As they said:

Friday’s G-8 summit at Camp David may seem something of an oddity – an archaic reminder of a time before the rise of the BRICs …

My colleagues then launched into a rather odd anti-declinist posture and then suggested that the West is not in decline but

Rather, the financial crisis has created a two-speed West.  Four large countries  – Germany , South Korea, Turkey and the United States – are actually increasing their international influence, while the others are stuck in a rut.

I have no difficulty in acknowledging that each of these identified four seems to have weathered the global financial crisis – some better than others – and that each in its own way has augmented its influence, though it would seem that Germany’s influence appears to be all negative – insisting on what it won’t do and others can’t.  But even with this odd assemblage, there appears to be at least two oddities about this GUTS list.  First of course neither South Korea (I did suggest pointedly to my colleague Bruce that Korean officials, at least,  hate the term South Korea – but leave that alone) nor Turkey are members of the old club.  Thus, if anything this new energy for the “West” – I am not at all sure what that now means when we talk of Korea and Turkey – comes from members that are intimate to the G20 – the new head table for global summitry  but not the old.  So I am puzzled.

Secondly, why these four for identifying the new energy coursing through the West.  I would be hard pressed not to include Australia – who has seen sustained growth for some time and now a strong advocate – all right I’ll admit more of an advocate when led by Kevin Rudd – than with the current prime minister – for the G20.  In addition,  and here I would suggest a country that is part of the G7 and of the G20 – my own country Canada.   Strong growth in the OECD and a joiner if there ever was one.

If those two were acceptable we could have “CATS” or “CUTS”.   The point is a range of countries – vaguely identified as the ‘West” have had robust growth and have taken action to “uphold the international order”.  Is it a two-speed West?  I doubt it and it doesn’t detract from the core of the problem – the relative decline in the US economy and more critically US leadership.  Put more positively the rise of a multipower order and how to manage global collaboration in the face of the rise of GUTS, or CATS or CUTS or whatever.

Image Credit – The United States: Official logo for the Camp David G8 Summit