Again this weekend David Sanger of the NYT has provided some real insight into the ways the US has implemented Barack Obama’s commitment as a candidate to restore “engagement” in US foreign policy.  While I have posed to you – the reader – that a key issue in clarifying the success – or not,  of global governance is an examination of current US leadership.  I am working through – as quickly as I can honestly –  Steven Weber (Berkeley) and Bruce Jentleson’s (Duke University)  recently released, “The End of Arrogance: America and the Global Competition of Ideas”.  I suspect further clues will emerge from that future post on this new book on US leadership.

But back to David Sanger.  Relying on WikiLeaks, David examines Obama Administration behavior and comes away suggesting:

Engage, yes, but wield a club as well – and try to counter the global doubts that he is willing to use. … Mr. Obama’s form of engagement is a complicated mixture of openness to negotiation, constantly escalating pressure and a series of deadlines, some explicit, some vague.

This article then describes the successes but also the failures in applying the Administration’s policy of engagement as just described above.  While successes have occurred – Russia policy most evidently – there are evident limits – Iran, North Korea and China.  The dilemma is that engagement is only part of the equation; another element is influence.  Fortunately, in this week’s “Week in Review”  is just full of insight in of all things United States foreign policy.

And particularly useful – that is in giving us some perspective on “influence” – is  Tom Friedman’s op-ed in his Sunday NYT piece, “The America Big Leak“.  What Tom points to – and to be fair he has been beating on this drum for some time- the US has little leverage – what I define as influence. The reason – oil.  What external trade is to China; oil and oil US consumption is to the United States.  It is all addiction.

For the United States, as described by Friedman:

When we [United States] import $28 billion a month in oil, we can’t say to the Saudis: “We know the guys who would come after you would be be much worse, but why do we have to choose between your misrule and corruption and their brutality and intolerance?” … We also lack leverage with the Chinese on North Korea, or with regard to the values of China’s currency, because we’re addicted to their credit. Geopolitics is all about leverage (emphasis added).  We cannot make ourselves safer abroad unless we change our behavior at home.  But  our politics never connects the two.

While it may not represent the entire picture, leverage or influence – the same are critical to leadership.  And the US needs to change the equation of influence starting currently  with cheap oil.

Less US dependence on oil would have a major impact on global governance leadership.  But it would not be the whole picture.  Beyond “influence” we need a clear behavioral strategy.  Stay tuned.