Tag Archives: South Africa

Multilateralism: It is Just Largely Talk Now

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While you will see that the main focus of this Substack is on multilateralism, and its current failure, I couldn’t let Trump’s disrespect for the President of South Africa, Cyril Ramaphosa pass without some comment. Once again in the Oval Office, as described in the NYTimes,  Trump let his lack of understanding, his lack of facts rule the day. It showed the absolute worst of Trump. The American people should be ashamed that a leader is willing to so distort US relations with potentially friendly leaders:

“In an astonishing confrontation in the Oval Office on Wednesday, President Trump lectured President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa with false claims about a genocide against white Afrikaner farmers, even dimming the lights to show what he said was video evidence of their persecution.”

 

“The meeting had been expected to be tense, given that Mr. Trump has suspended all aid to the country and created an exception to his refugee ban for Afrikaners, fast-tracking their path to citizenship even as he keeps thousands of other people out.”

 

“But the meeting quickly became a stark demonstration of Mr. Trump’s belief that the world has aligned against white people, and that Black people and minorities have received preferential treatment. In the case of South Africa, that belief has ballooned into claims of genocide.”

One last point, a good point it appears, though still somewhat uncertain, Trump will attend, apparently,  the G20 Summit gathering in November in South Africa. As reported in the NYTimes: 

“South Africa presented a framework for a trade deal, the president said, and the two sides agreed to hold further discussions to iron out the specifics of an agreement. He said that Mr. Trump indicated that he would attend the Group of 20 summit in Johannesburg in November, despite suggestions by his administration that the United States might skip it.” 

 So now back to today’s main subject, multilateralism. Back in December 2024 in a Substack Post here at Alan’s Newsletter, “Focusing on the Future – Where are we on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and some other things?” I leaned on Homi Kharas, my good colleague at Brookings to give me some hope that states, many states, were turning to focus on the sustainable development goals (SDGs). And Homi and some of his colleagues did. As I wrote at the time: 

“Even more pointedly, Homi suggested that a vein of optimism was called for. The reason: technology could provide the necessary fillip to efforts to achieve the SDGs. Under the header, “ Technology is finally delivering on its promise to make major economic production and consumption structures more sustainable””  

While that may be the case for some it is clearly not the case for the second Trump administration. As Dashveenjit Kaurashveenjit Kaur wrote rather depressingly this last March in Sustainability News: 

“The US has officially rejected the UN Sustainable Development Goals, citing sovereignty concerns and claiming a mandate from voters to prioritise American interests over global frameworks.” 

 

“When world leaders gathered at the United Nations headquarters in New York in September 2015, they created what many called a “blueprint for a better future” – the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Then-president Obama pledged American commitment to the ambitious 15-year roadmap designed to transform our world by 2030.” 

 

“This week, and the United States has executed a stunning, although not unexpected about-face: the Trump administration has declared it now “rejects and denounces” these very same global objectives, becoming what appears to be the first nation to abandon the framework since its unanimous adoption.” 

 

“The consequential announcement arrived not through a high-profile press conference or presidential statement. Still, it nested in diplomatic remarks delivered by Edward Heartney, Minister Counselor to ECOSOC at the US Mission to the United Nations.” 

 

““Put simply, globalist endeavours like Agenda 2030 and the SDGs lost at the ballot box,” Heartney stated in the prepared remarks. “Therefore, the United States rejects and denounces the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals, and it will no longer reaffirm them as a matter of course.”” 

Now maybe this declaration from a mid-level bureaucrat can ultimately be swept away if the Trump administration changes its mind – as we’ve seen it wouldn’t be the first occasion for sure, still the statement is rather chilling and appears to meaningfully undermine the multilateral effort that to this point not very successfully, notwithstanding two recent UN summits that focused wholly or in part on on the SDGs. 

This episode is just a small part of the growing acknowledgement that the heart of multilateralism, the UN and its many specialized agencies are failing. Many of us concerned with global stability and order focus a fair amount on the numerous multilateral efforts. But there does seem to be a certain amount of denial going on. 

Now, in this context of faltering multilateralism, I was attracted by the recent piece penned by my colleague, Peter Singer. Peter among other things writes the Substack Global Health Insights.   Now Peter was special adviser to the director general of the World Health Organization from 2017 to 2023. He  is today emeritus professor of medicine at the University of Toronto and a former chief executive of Grand Challenges Canada. Peter understands the faltering UN effort. As he posted recently at his Substack, in a piece titled, “UN leadership: relentlessly focused on results?”: 

“Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has recently taken to tweeting, “The mission of the UN is more urgent than ever.” This is certainly true, but not in its current version — replete with process and plans. There is, of course, a reform initiative, called UN80; however, it seems more focused on managerial efficiency and restructuring than results. The UN needs a new mission: Get Stuff Done.” 

With the current round of new leadership appointments,  Peter turns to leadership, and its central importance: 

“Yet despite their importance, the UN system has often struggled to deliver timely, measurable outcomes—an issue exacerbated by dwindling trust and funding. With Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) badly lagging and support for the UN increasingly under threat, the need for results-focused leadership [emphasis added] is more urgent than ever.” 

 

“The UN desperately needs leaders who are singularly focused on delivering measurable results. Without results, there is no trust; without trust, there is no funding. Results must be the cornerstone of any leadership candidacy.” 

If leadership is key, then, Peter points to critical upcoming opportunities for the UN system and what is necessary for the incoming leadership: 

“A key lever is leadership. Over the next three years, (at least) three major UN bodies will select (or elect) new leaders: the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 2025, the UN Secretariat in 2026, and the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2027. The future of the UN may well hinge on whether these new leaders possess one crucial characteristic: a relentless focus on results.” 

 

“Results must be the cornerstone of any leadership candidacy.”

 

“This results focus is fully compatible with other perspectives that will drive these elections, such as gender and regional representation.” 

 

“Having had experience with a UN agency election and tried (and not fully succeeded) to help transform a UN agency into one that prioritizes results above all, I witnessed firsthand the barriers that make implementing a results-focused strategy difficult.” 

So as Peter portrays it what is necessary for successful multilateralism is leadership dedicated to results that can be shown. Only with this will trust be built and with trust, according to Peter, funding will be forthcoming. With that in hand, he then targets the current effort to choose new leadership:

“This is the acid test. Leaders who have a proven track record of achieving tangible outcomes are more likely to replicate that success at the UN. The UN is awash with process. But there is a gap between planning and execution.” … 

 

“In addition to personal examples, candidates should be able to provide compelling analysis and tangible solutions for improving measurable results at the agency they wish to lead.” … 

 

“From my experience, two elements are essential to fast-tracking progress: innovation and data.” … 

 

“Effective governance is even more important than management. Leaders must work with governing bodies to improve the results focus of the organization. UN governance tends to focus more on planning and process than on execution and results.” … 

 

“Changing the culture of an organization is key to making results-focused strategy, management, or governance sustainable. UN organizations tend to be highly hierarchical, which means leadership has an outsized impact on culture.” … 

 

“As member states, civil society, and donors engage in these critical leadership selections, they must champion candidates who are relentlessly focused on results. The future of the UN depends on it.”

And with that Peter concludes: 

“Nevertheless, imagine a UN system where, in five years, every agency is led by someone relentlessly focussed on results and on getting things done. It would be a very different—and far more effective and sustainable —UN than the one we see today.” 

The ‘pitch’ for critical leadership is sensible and important especially in the context of upcoming leadership searches and appointments. But I remain hesitant to accept that this will ‘turn this ship around’.   It seems to me that in the end the critical element remains national effort and the determination for members to forge collective policy whether health policy, climate change whatever. As Gordon La Forge. 2025 in his piece,  “The U.N. Is Still the Best Forum to Tackle AI Governance”. Reminds us in his recent piece in WPR:

“The late Richard Holbrooke once quipped that blaming the U.N. for international dysfunction is like faulting Madison Square Garden when the Knicks lose. Put another way, the U.N. continues to struggle with what could be called the 193-body problem: Nation-states are the world’s dominant form of political organization, but they are neither well-equipped to solve planetary challenges nor designed to defend the best interests of humanity as a whole, which often conflict with national imperatives.” 

It may require ‘coalitions of the willing’ to press ahead with new leadership on advancing critical and necessary policy. We cannot let the 193-body problem of the UN, or the ‘big boys’ problem, US, China and Russia to torpedo critical policy efforts. It is time to end just the talk. Using a plurilateral approach to push forward is critical though possibly incomplete. More on that soon. 

Credit Image: UN Dispatch

This Post first appeared at Alan’s Newsletter: https://substack.com/home/post/p-164155148

All comments and subscriptions are welcome.

A Tribute to Joseph S. Nye Jr. and Multilateralism Threatened: The G20 in South Africa

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He passed on May 6th. He was a longstanding leader in international relations. So at 88 Joseph Nye, Joe to most in the international relations community, passed away.

Joe was notable for many things, but possibly most notably his leadership at Harvard and his determination to move from academia to policy making and back. Probably best known for his creation and application of ‘soft power’, especially with respect the United States, he represented the best of international relations thought and application. His career was close to singular. As described in the NYTimes by Trip Gabriel:

“Sometimes considered the dean of American political science, Mr. Nye led the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and held senior jobs in the Carter and Clinton administrations.”

He was appointed deputy under secretary of state from 1977 to 1979. He returned to office with President Clinton serving in 1993 as chair of the National Intelligence Council. In 1994, he was appointed assistant secretary for international security affairs at the Pentagon.

On the academic side Joe joined the Harvard faculty in 1964, and he became dean of the Kennedy School of Government from 1995 to 2004.

Joe was probably best known for the concept he proposed and advanced throughout much of his career – ‘soft power’. As Trip Gabriel pointed out:

“Mr. Nye developed the concept of soft power in the late 1980s to explain how America’s ability to get other nations to do what it wanted rested on more than the power of its military or economy; it also derived from American values.”

“Soft power tools include diplomacy, economic assistance and trustworthy information, such as that provided in Voice of America broadcasts. He laid out his thinking in a 2004 book, “Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.””

““Joe’s seminal book on soft power is one of the very few books by a political scientist on international relations that had an impact on the real world beyond academia,” Derek Shearer, a professor of diplomacy at Occidental College in Los Angeles, said in an email.”

Joe also promoted – it is somewhat unclear who first described it, ‘smart power’. Smart power is identified as the combination of hard power and soft power strategies. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, smart power is an “an approach that underscores the necessity of a strong military, but also invests heavily in alliances, partnerships, and institutions of all levels to expand one’s influence and establish legitimacy of one’s action.”

Joe promoted, in other words, critical strategic diplomacy and policy making. I must say I was quite lucky to enjoy his thinking and analysis. I was invited a variety of times by my mentor Richard Rosecarnce to the The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard where later in his career he ‘hung his hat’. The Belfer Center is the hub of Harvard Kennedy School’s research, teaching, and training in international security and diplomacy, environment and natural resource issues, and science and technology policy. Rosecrance would include me in various US-China and US-Middle East gatherings. Joe Nye was almost always present and I was thoroughly impressed by his insights and his very congenial involvement in all the discussions we held. He will be sadly missed but one of his final thoughts on President Trump is worth repeating:

““I’m afraid President Trump doesn’t understand soft power,” Mr. Nye told CNN in an interview days before his death. “Think back on the Cold War — American nuclear deterrence and American troops in Europe were crucial. But when the Berlin Wall went down, it didn’t go down under a barrage of artillery. It went down under hammers and bulldozers wielded by people whose minds had been changed by the Voice of America and the BBC.””

I would also refer to the insight on Nye from colleagues at the The Wire China, Haitong Du, Margaret Siu, Brian Wong, Chengkai Xie, and Duo Yi:

“Nye’s influence was not merely conceptual; it was lived — and is lived. He reshaped how we study power, and how we reckon with the responsibility it entails. He also taught us that values endure beyond individual leaders, and can transcend institutions. He reminded us, time and time again, that the world needs morally sound and resonant universal tenets for effective global leadership.”

“He cautioned us — gently, firmly — against over-reliance on historical analogy. Determinism and fatalism, he warned, are no guides to the future. Truth is more complex than polarisation. And through it all, Nye showed that strategic thinking demands not just expertise, but prudent judgement of knowing when to act, when to hold back, and what principles must endure.”

And finally an opening statement from the PS and its editors:

“Just a few decades ago, the world understood power in one way: as the ability to secure one’s desired outcomes using coercion, intimidation, or payoffs. Joseph S. Nye, Jr., changed all that in the late 1980s, when he introduced the idea of “soft power” to describe the use of attraction to advance one’s interests and, later, when he devised the concept of “smart power” (which combines soft power with traditional “hard” power).”

Now I had planned to turn to the rather sad state of the UN as it approaches Year80. A focus on fading multilateralism. But I was called off that for the moment because of a serious back and forth between the Trump administration and the government of South Africa led by President Cyril Ramaphosa. Now South Africa holds the presidency of the G20 in this current year and President Trump has attacked the South African government for supposedly expropriating without compensation land from South African Afrikaners. Just this week Politico reported that the United States admitted a number of white South Africans to the United States:

“A group of 49 Afrikaners claiming to face discrimination and economic hardship in their home country arrived to the U.S. on Monday morning after being awarded an expedited pathway into the country by the Trump administration under a new program established earlier this year.”

As I noted in a previous Post here at Alan’s Newsletter, the Trump administration has ‘penalized’ South Africa with both Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declining to attend the first G20 ministerial gatherings for foreign ministers and for finance ministers.

But it seems that is not where it has ended and there continue to be hints that Trump might not attend the Summit. As reported by Jeff Stein and John Hiudson at WAPO:

“The White House National Security Council has ordered U.S. agencies and departments to suspend work with the Group of 20 conference set to be hosted by South Africa this year, according to two people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe a government decision not yet made public.”

“The move follows President Donald Trump’s public threats to boycott the summit over claims that White South Africans are having their land taken away by the government under a new expropriation law.”

“How could we be expected to go to South Africa for the very important G-20 Meeting when Land Confiscation and Genocide is the primary topic of conversation?” Trump wrote on Truth Social in April. “They are taking the land of white Farmers, and then killing them and their families.”

While South Africa and its President, Cyril Ramaphosa, have rebutted Trump and his allegations, it would seem that the South African President has decided to try and ‘clear the air’ and set relations on a ‘better track’ – possibly getting Trump to agree to attend the Summit in November. As reported in AlJazeera:

“South African President Cyril Ramaphosa will meet United States President Donald Trump at the White House next week in an attempt to “reset” ties between the two countries, Pretoria has said.”

“The president’s visit to the US provides a platform, hopefully, to reset the strategic relationship between the two countries,” it added, saying the trip will take place from Monday to Thursday and the two leaders will meet on Wednesday.”

“The White House had no immediate comment on the meeting, which would be Trump’s first with the leader of an African nation since he returned to office in January.”

If we are right, Ramaphosa’s trip to the US is designed to secure assurances of Trump’s G20 South Africa Summit attendance and US involvement in the myriad of Ministerial gatherings, Working Group efforts and Task Force ones for the annual G20 Summit. If so, and his efforts succeed, a strong sigh of relief will be expressed I suspect by all G20 members. Success of US attendance will also help to secure US hosting for the 2026 G20 Summit. A further sigh of relief I anticipate.

Image Credit: Munk Debates